The Oscars are this weekend. You are forgiven if you did not realize it; I can’t think of a year when there was less build-up for Hollywood’s Biggest Night. And while reasons for this lack of attention are not hard to discover (presidential primaries that include Donald Trump, for example), it’s no doubt that the #OscarsSoWhite campaign has hurt this years telecast.
Hosting the White Oscars on Sunday is certainly not what the Academy, or ABC, had in mind for 2016, but that story simply can’t disappear until after the awards are handed out. Which means that, whether you care or not, whether you plan to watch or not, some folks will be getting golden statues this weekend.
So, for the love of movies, let’s pick some winners.
The good thing about this year’s Best Picture nominees is that they are, generally speaking, quite excellent. Spotlight, Mad Max: Fury Road, Room, The Martian, The Big Short. So maybe it’s a surprise to no one but me, but it appears that The Revenant is the odds-on favorite to be this year’s big winner. This is a bummer. Despite the press the film earned for its “very difficult production” and despite all the awards it has already wracked up-from the guilds and the critics circles and the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes (okay, it’s won a lot)-the truth remains that The Revenant is just not that good. Its a feat of technique, without heart or subtlety anywhere (including Leo’s work). But then again, overlong, self-indulgent awards bait does describe a fair amount of the Academy’s top winners.
My personal favorite in the Best Picture category is Spotlight, which shows how to make a great film with discipline, emotion, and acting. Spotlight and The Revenant are even to win, but the sensible pick would be to take the big bold American Adventure Man Picture over the ethically grounded journalistic investigation of the Catholic Church’s sex abuse scandal.
PICTURE
Prediction: The Revenant
Preference: Spotlight
Only one story exists this year in the Best Actor category: Will Leonardo DiCaprio finally win his long-awaited, much-anticipated Academy Award? The Revenant is the actor’s sixth nomination in the past 22 years-his first was back in 1994, for What’s Eating Gilbert Grape, which he lost to Tommy Lee Jones. Since then, Leo’s seen nods for The Aviator (lost to Jamie Foxx), Blood Diamond (lost to Forest Whitaker), and Wolf of Wall Street (lost to Matthew McConaughey).
If Leo loses this year-which would be a shocker-it will likely be Eddie Redmayne, for The Danish Girl, who spoils Leo’s glory. Given that Redmayne won in a shocker last year, I suppose we should not discount his chances. Still, the weight of fate seems to be behind Leo this year. He ate raw buffalo liver, so, top that Redmayne.
Of course, eating gross food is not actually a feat of acting as much as daring, and that has always been a problem for The Revenant. Physically testing limits may be exciting, but in the craft of acting, is it the highest achievement? To be honest, none of these performances are particularly exciting (the best male performances I saw this year were Peter Sarsgaard in The Experimenter and Koudous Seihon in Mediterranea), so I guess we should just give it to Leo and get over this whole “when will Leo win his Oscar” obsession.
ACTOR
Prediction: Leo DiCaprio
Preference: I don’t care.
Much more difficult to predict is Best Actress. Carol’s Cate Blanchett is the odds favorite, but only just. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) and Brie Larson (Room) are right on her tails. Blanchett has two wins already, but her performance as the titular Carol in Todd Hayne’s 1950s lesbian drama is hard to argue against. Still, Brie Larson did the most effecting work of this group, and just maybe of anyone in the industry this year (possible exception: Elisabeth Moss in Queen of Earth).
All that really matters, though, is that the Academy avoid Jennifer Lawrence this year. This is not personal. I think Ms. Lawrence is a once-in-a-generation talent, and her future is going to be full of gold. But Joy, no matter how you shake it, is a terrible movie.
ACTRESS
Prediction: Brie Larson
Preference: Brie Larson
Do you know how hard it was to direct The Revenant? It was, like, so hard. It rained so much. It was cold and there was clouds and stuff. It was shot chronologically. It was photographed in all-natural light. It was hard on the crew. Everything that can go wrong, did. Apparently.
The “this was hard to make” coverage that has afixxed so firmly to The Revenant has without a doubt had an impact on the opinion of the film. But I am left wondering: who cares if it was hard? (Also, didn’t that get used last year in pro column for Best Picture Winner ‘series of long shots to fake a single take’ Birdman?) Look, Mr. Inarritu: Movies are hard to make. Otherwise we’d all make movies. Putting limits on your shoot and then having those limits haunt you is not a sign of a great director. Wouldn’t a great director create situations in which the best possible film could be made and then follow through by making the best possible film? If that’s what happened in The Revenant, fair enough. But I’m unconvinced.
Also, Inarritu does not have a subtle bone in his directorial body. He will win because POW BANG REVENGE MURDER BLOOD MOUNTAINS BEAR ATTACK. Maybe I am out of touch on this. Maybe for all those reasons, he deserves it. But give me Tom McCarthy, who directed Michael Keaton to the best performance of his career; who made John Slattery’s reluctant editor into a powerhouse performance; who can make something special from that most boring cinematic scene: the one-sided phone call.
That bear attack is a totally cool piece of directing. But creating a moving scene in which Rachel McAdams watches her nana read the paper, that is great directing.
DIRECTOR
Prediction: Alejandro G. Inarritu
Preference: Tom McCarthy
What if Inside Out loses to Anomalisa? Pixar going down to Charlie Kaufmann’s existential stop-motion animated heart-pounder? That would be a very easy choice to get behind.
According to the betting-folks, Inside Out has a slight edge, and that makes a lot of sense. It’s hard, and not too smart, to pick against Pixar in Best Animated Feature category.
ANIMATED FEATURE
Prediction: Inside Out
Preference: Inside Out & Anomalisa win in a tie.
If there is a sentimental favorite in this year’s Oscars, it would Rocky Balboa himself. Sylverster Stallone winning an Oscar for playing the beloved character he created in the 1970s in a reboot for the 21st century is just the kind of industry-love-story these voters, well, love. Sorry, Mark Ruffalo, et al.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Prediction: Sly
Preference: Mark Ruffalo in lieu of John Slattery
As for Supporting Actress, I have no idea who will win. For my money, Rooney Mara is putting up performance after performance that rivals anyone in the world (let’s pretend Pan didn’t happen). Her leading-lady turn opposite Cate Blanchett in Carol is worthy of the Oscar. Alicia Vikander seems to be her main competition. Unfortunately, Vikander’s nod is not for Ex Machina, where she was brilliant, and the movie was risky. But this is Oscars.
Prediction: Alicia Vikander
Preference: Rooney Mara
If Spotlight is going to have a shot at Best Picture, it’ll have to pick up early awards like Best Original Screenplay. And it should. Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer’s screenplay captures the enormous scale of the sex abuse scandal through the intimate, though not always calm, interactions of journalists, victims, and lawyers. The film’s dialogue is pointed but not authentic, and it’s design as a thrilling investigation story matches the stress of the unfolding revelations.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Prediction: Spotlight
Preference: Spotlight
This appears to be in the bag for The Big Short. That’s fine, really, and if it turns out so, I see no real reason to complain. But it’s worth noting that, if there’s a possible spoiler, it comes from one of the best novel adaptations in recent years: The Martian. Adapted by Drew Goddard from Andy Weir’s science-dense and emotionally-vacant novel of the same name, Goddard’s screenplay manages to match Weir’s science-fun with human emotion, isolation, desperation, and a rousing populist rescue mission. All taking place in a best-of-humanity fantasy story. Hollywood screenwriting at its best.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Prediction: The Big Short
Preference: The Martian
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