Every year, I try to pick the winners at the Oscars, and every year, I fail. This is because I am an emotional and sentimental cinephile. That emotion tends to mask logic, and I end up thinking that what I love will carry the day with the Oscar voters. This, to no one’s surprise, never really happens.

So this, year, I’m not just predicting. I am going to fill out my sentimental ballot. It will include what I think is the best and hope will win in each category, and then my prediction of what the voters will pick.

Best Picture
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Birdman
The Theory of Everything
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Whiplash
Selma
American Sniper

I missed the moment when Birdman became the favorite for Best Picture, surpassing Boyhood, which was the early favorite for months. But now the prognosticators say Birdman has the edge. Which I think is, unfortunate. I like Birdman. There’s little not to like in Alejandro González Iñárritu’s best film. If Birdman wins, it will be hard to complain. It’s a weird movie and one that does not scream Best Picture Please (like some of these other admirable yet obvious nominations).

Boyhood might be suffering from too much exposure and attention (a unique problem in the career of Richard Linklater), but all that attention is warranted. The film is truly unique in the annals of film history, and how often does a voter for the Academy get to reward a film that stands alone as one of a kind?

Is Boyhood built on a gimmick? That it took 12 years to make has been repeated endlessly, and for many, that refrain may be getting tiring. Yes, 12 years, how wonderful, that’s special, but what else does the film offer? Christopher Orr at the Atlantic wonders that, too. Does Boyhood overcome the talking point of its unique production.

The answer is yes, of course. It is a great film; a moving and powerful story about a family and how we grow together. I loved it and I hope that it wins.

What I hope will win: Boyhood
What I think will win: Boyhood

I just have a feeling that the late surge for Birdman is more driving the idea of a close race, but that voters will take the opportunity to reward Linklater. Maybe that’s just optimism, too. Picture and Director have been splitting more and more of late, and I would not be surprised to see Boyhood and Birdman split the two.

Best Director
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

Less winding this time: I think Richard Linklater will win this, and should. Boyhood, as a project, requires such a huge amount of directorial control and vision that I just don’t see how anyone else can win this one. It’s right there on the surface when you watch Boyhood, a decade of directing and shooting and editing? That’s worth an Oscar. It’s sort of like Gravity last year for Alfonso Cuaron. Whether it was the year’s best, it was certainly the year’s best achievement in directing.

But perhaps the same case can be made for Alejandro González Iñárritu, who brings together a massive cinematic project into a small, intimate film. If Boyhood is a cinematic experience all its own, Birdman is one that celebrates the imaginative capability of what the movies can do. It’s a movie-lovers movie, and do you know who (reportedly) loves movies? Oscar voters. This one is close.

Who I hope will win: Richard Linklater
Who I think will win: Richard Linklater

Special note: I would love to see Wes Anderson win a Best Director award, and while he has many films left in him, I wonder if his work is getting better lately. Moonrise Kingdom was better than Grand Budapest Hotel, but Hotel would make a terrific film to award Anderson for. It’s a beautiful, and complicated achievement. He won’t win, but if he did, everyone would be happy, right?

Best Actress
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

I have not seen Still Alice, but I have no reason to think that everyone is wrong. Julianne Moore is a terrific actress and she’s been nominated many times and word is that this, finally, is her year. Moore is the favorite by a long-shot and there’s no reason to pick against her.

BUT. My heart goes to the heartless Amy Dunne in this category. Rosamund Pike’s nomination is perhaps my favorite of the year. First, Pike is excellent. But as much as Pike is great in the role (several of these performances-especially Reese Witherspoon’s-was expert), Pike played a role that we just don’t see women get recognized for enough. Amy Dunne is such an unlikable, perhaps unredeemable, woman, and her actions in Gone Girl are so difficult to experience as viewers (and presumably as her husband) that I cannot help but root for the Oscar Voters to go full dark and give the Oscar to a diabolical, murderous woman who (SPOILER ALERT) succeeds.

Who I hope will win: Rosamund Pike
Who I think will win: Julianne Moore

Best Actor
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper

I hope that Michael Keaton wins and only partially because I think he is the most deserving. I hope he wins because he is a comic actor, in a role that is at least partially comic. I hope he wins because Michael Keaton deserves to be the guy who wins for comedy at the Oscars, an institution that has had very little love for comedy over the years. Not that Birdman is a comedy. It isn’t. But the part is as close to a comic Best Actor role since, what?

Who I hope will win: Michael Keaton.
Who I think will win: Michael Keaton.

Or, perhaps, Eddie Redmayne? He’s great at playing the physically handicapped and brilliant Stephen Hawking, in a British Bio-pic that is very good and full of high quality performances. It is hard to pick against that.

Best Supporting Actor
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Edward Norton, Birdman
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Mark Ruffalo, FoxcatcherRobert Duvall, The Judge

Emotionally, I want Ethan Hawke to win because I have always been a sucker for dad and son relationships (Life Aquatic is my favorite Wes Anderson movie), and now I’m a dad of a young son and the whole emotional bundle of Boyhood I feel for that movie is complicating my brain.

But he won’t win, and that’s fine. I don’t think he should, really.

I hope in reality that J.K. Simmons wins because everyone loves Simmons. He’s an actor who works hard and takes roles and makes things happen in places you would not expect. Though that is not the case in Whiplash. In Whiplash, Simmons has a big and pushy role to play, and he does it with artistry. This is a movie for artists and about artists and Simmons and Miles Teller both knock it out of the park.

Who I hope will win: J.K. Simmons
Who I think will win: J.K. Simmons

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Emma Stone, Birdman
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Laura Dern, Wild

There are two women in this category that I want to walk home with wins: Laura Dern, for her brief but memorable role as Cheryl Strayed’s mother in Wild, and Patricia Arquette, for her (basically) leading role in Boyhood. Without Arquette in Boyhood, its hard to say what kind of film Linklater would have ended up with. It’s possible another professional actor could have carried the role of Mom in the movie just as well.

But with Arquette, Linklater found a heavyweight actor who is also a stone-cold professional, capable of anchoring a project that, given the scale and scope and demand of the shoot, required just that. A side benefit for voters is the fact that Arquette committed to a role that shows her aging from her mid-30s to her mid-40s, something few actresses would likely have been interested in undertaking.

Watching Arquette age 12 years in 2.5 hours is just as powerful a cinematic experience, if more subtle, than watching the Ellar Coltrane at the film’s center.

Who I hope will win: Patricia Arquette
Who I think will win: Patricia Arquette

Best Adapted Screenplay
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Jason Hall, American Sniper
Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice

I wanted this a while back to go to PT Anderson, because I was mesmerized by how weird Inherent Vice was. But I’m less mesmerized by it now. Plus, PT Anderson will have his day. But Inherent Vice just isn’t the one.

And thus, I don’t know really what to root for. I think it’ll be Damien Chazelle, because Whiplash is taut and challenging piece of writing that comes out really, really well. I actually thought that Whiplash may have won a screenplay award, but it’s flubbing by the Academy hurt its chances. They included it in Adapted because it was a short-film at first to secure financing, which is ridiculous and too confusing for voters who don’t care to figure things out.

As for what will? Probably one of the biopics, which will both win one one or two, and this is a place where adaptation is rewarded by performance.

Who I hope will win: Damian Chazelle
Who I think will win: Graham Moore

Best Original Screenplay
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
Dan Futterman and E. Max Frye, Foxcatcher

Birdman because Birdman probably reads like a terrific madcap story. Its original and so much of its originality is in its writing. Unlike Boyhood, for example, whose is originality rests elsewhere.

Probably, though, it’s Wes Anderson’s year. He’s had a few writing nominations, and he’s probably gonna have several more. This year, I think he picks up his first Oscar.

Who I hope will win: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo, Birdman
Who I think will win: Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Foreign Film
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Tangerines (Estonia)
Timbuktu (Mauritania)
Wild Tales (Argentina)

Who I hope will win: Ida
Who I think will win: Ida

Best Documentary Feature
Citizenfour
Last Days in Vietnam
Virunga
Finding Vivian Maier
The Salt of the Earth

The chance for voters to vote for the Edward Snowden documentary just seems too good to pass up. Who loves feeling “important” more than Academy voters? How can they pass up the opportunity to have a speech at the Oscars about freedom and dissent and, like, politics, man?

Who I hope will win: Honestly, I don’t know.
Who I think will win: Citizenfour

Best Animated Feature
Big Hero 6
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Boxtrolls
Song of the Sea
The Tale of Princess Kaguya

I so loved The Tale of Princess Kaguya That I ranked it the #2 film of 2014 and if anything it might’ve come in low. Art on the big screen like I’ve never seen it before. The final from the masters of Studio Ghibli. So much goes in favor of Pincess Kaguya, but it won’t be taking any prizes home.

Something else, though, will. Big Hero 6? That’s Marvel, and Marvel is popular, plus Disney is a winner in this category a lot. Or How to Train Your Dragon 2. Probably that one. I don’t know. I don’t really care, honestly. Fucking Princess Kaguya.

Who I hope will win: The Tale of Princess Kaguya
Who I think will win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Film Editing
American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash

Twelve years of footage boiled into a 2.5 hour movie. How do you not give the award to Boyhood? Though in the interest of spreading the love around, as they say, something like The Imitation Game could pick one up here or there. This might be a chance.

Who I hope will win: Boyhood
Who I think will win: Boyhood

Best Song
Gregg Alexander, Danielle Brisebois, Nick Lashley, and Nick Southwood, “Lost Stars” (Begin Again)
John Legend and Common, “Glory” (Selma)
Shawn Patterson, Joshua Bartholomew, Lisa Harriton, and The Lonely Island, “Everything Is Awesome” (The Lego Movie)
The-Dream, “Grateful” (Beyond the Lights)
Glen Campbell, “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” (Glen Campbell … I’ll Be Me)

This award goes to Selma. Because it should, and because voters will reward the achievement that is Selma, and frankly the nominators didn’t give them many other chances. The film won’t win Best Picture, and it was shutout of so many others that it might’ve been able to compete in, but Selma will win where it can: here.

Plus, this is a great song.

Who I hope will win: John Legend and Common, “Glory” (Selma)
Who I think will win: John Legend and Common, “Glory” (Selma)

Best Original Score
Johann Johannsson, The Theory of Everything
Alexandre Desplat, The Imitation Game
Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Hans Zimmer, Interstellar
Gary Yershon, Mr. Turner

Zimmer’s score for Interstellar helped sell that movies’ bonkier aspects and that is enough for me. I loved those bonkier aspects.

Who I hope will win: Hans Zimmer, Interstellar
Who I think will win: Johann Johannsson, The Theory of Everything

Best Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman
Dick Pope, Mr. Turner
Robert D. Yeoman, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ryszard Lenczewski and Łukasz Żal, Ida
Roger Deakins, Unbroken

Emmanuel Lubezki won last year for Gravity and wow did he deserve it. But he does so again. Birdman‘s photography is a sort of gimmicked, in the stringing together of long-takes to emulate a single take, but that’s fine. It’s result is unbelievable and something voters can look to as a sign of skill and quality, which it is.

Who I hope will win: Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman
Who I think will win: Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman

Costume Design
Colleen Atwood, Into the Woods
Anna B. Sheppard, Maleficent
Milena Canonero, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Jacqueline Durran, Mr. Turner
Mark Bridges, Inherent Vice

I thought Maleficent looked great. Visually dramatic and eye-popping in a good way. The costumes were great, but it’s possible the Academy will think, oh well fairytales are always full of boisterous and weird costumes big deal. Which is just, you know, asshole stuff. It’s terrifically costumed, jerks.

Who I hope will win: Maleficent
Who I think will win: Grand Budapest Hotel

Makeup and Hairstyling
Guardians of the Galaxy
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel

Make-up wise, I don’t know why it wouldn’t be Guardians. Maybe because there are whole characters who are green and blue and red and whatever, and the Academy voters will think oh, that’s not skilled its just comic-book silliness. Well it isn’t! It’s an amazingly make-upped movie asses.

Who I hope will win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Who I think will win: Grand Budapest Hotel

Production Design
Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Suzie Davies and Charlotte Watts, Mr. Turner
Dennis Gassner and Anna Pinnock, Into the Woods
Nathan Crowley, Garry Fettis, and Paul Healy, Interstellar
Maria Djurkovic, The Imitation Game

The art direction in a Wes Anderson movie is always flawless, and it was here, too. Winner winner, chicken dinner.

Who I hope will win: Grand Budapest Hotel
Who I think will win: Grand Budapest Hotel

Sound Editing
American Sniper
Interstellar
Unbroken
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Birdman

See below for why I think Interstellar deserves it. But I’m picking Sniper not becaus eit does or does not deserve it but because its gonna win some (if not make a surprise run and win 5). This is the kind that will go to Clint Eastwood’s surprising smash-hit.

Who I hope will win: Interstellar
Who I think will win: American Sniper

Sound Mixing
American Sniper
Birdman
Unbroken
Interstellar
Whiplash

I pick Interstellar and I hope it wins because it was a movie where the sound actually surprised. Not the music or the score or the special effects noise machine stuff, but the actual sound mixing worked as a tool to advance the story. While this really happens in every movie, rarely is it done with such clarity and attention. Which is way cool.

Who I hope will win: Interstellar
Who I think will win: Interstellar

Visual Effects
Interstellar
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
X Men: Days of Future Past
Captain America: The Winter Soldier

I want to pick Guaridans here because did you see that Rocket Racoon? Come ON! That’s amazing visual effects work. But then I wanted to pick X-Men, because did you see those ridiculous fucking fight scenes? But then, Interstellar has that shot of the round space-time bending wormhole orb thing that was basically the best looking thing on-screen all year.

But no. I pick Dawn of the Planet of the Apes because it is an entire film of special effects that are so good that these Apes are real. For real, realistic in a way that is beyond strange and just wholly believable. The new bar, visually, I think. It’s incredible.

Who I hope will win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Who I think will win: Interstellar

But, Interstellar‘s gotta win some, and the Academy loves to love Chris Nolan without really committing, and this is how it goes. it’ll pick up these tech wins, and thats’ just fine.

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