This weekend, once again, the Academy Awards are upon us. Hosted by Ellen, and fraught with non-film storylines (more so than usual), this year’s ceremony is loaded with great nominees. If you didn’t know, 2013 was an excellent year for the movies.

So. Below are the categories of the Academy Awards that I find most interesting this year. Not all are here, but all the majors and some of the tech stuff, which I’m always quite keen on and enjoy just as much as the big prizes. There’s often actual recognition of achievements to find in the technical awards, more so than in many of the major categories.

I’m sharing what I think should win, what I think will win, and some other thoughts here and there. As always, don’t take my word for any of this.

Best Animated Feature:

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

I think that The Wind Rises should win this award and every award because I think that Hayao Miyazaki is one of the two or three greatest filmmakers working in the world, and this is his last film. His imagination is boundless, and his absence, not just in animation but in global cinema, will leave a major whole in the hearts of many who have loved his work for the past three decades. Adieu to Hayao.

I think that The Wind Rises will win.

Best Cinematography:

The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd)
Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
Prisoners (Roger A. Deakins)

I think The Grandmaster should win because the film was, simply put, stunning to behold. The visual make-up of Wong Kar Wai’s film was its greatest asset, and more than enough to carry it to an Oscar. This is also the first nomination for any of Wong Kar Wai’s films (inconcievable!), and his body of work has been inspired. I hope it wins something, this year.

I think Gravity will win because of the technical accomplishment involved. And that’s hard to argue with.

Best Costume Design:

American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years a Slave

I think The Great Gatsby should win. Flashy and Bazzy as can be, Gatsby wasn’t that good. But it sure pulled off its suits and dresses and stylish Fitzgeraldian qualities with absolute perfection.

I think American Hustle will win because it’s gotta win something and I don’t think it’ll win majors. Plus Christian Bale’s Hair.

Best Production Design (formerly art direction):

American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave

This is my favorite award. And to me it’ll always be Best Art Direction. It goes to the film, in my mind, that is usually the most creative and original of the Oscar lot. This year, I think Gravity should win because it’s a master class in how to design a film. It is high art, popularized for the blockbuster audience, and made to appear so effortless that all you can do is white-knuckle your way through.

I think Gravity will win. Or 12 Years a Slave. I’m not quire sure, but this will tell us much about what happens later.

Best Visual Effects:

Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness

I think Gravity should win. Obviously.

I think Gravity will win. Obviously.

Best Foreign Language Film:

The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Omar (Palestine)

Frankly, I don’t know what should win because I’m unfamiliar with a lot of these titles.

I think The Great Beauty will win. Because other smart people are saying that and I’m not above barnacling upon others.

Best Supporting Actress:

Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)

I think Lupita Nyong’o should win. Her performance as Patsey in 12 Years a Slave was mesmerizing and devastating and worthy of all the attention it has provided the young actress. She gave a brilliant performance in the best movie of the year, and should as a result walk home a winner. I can’t wait to see what else she can do as an actress.

This is an amazing bit of nominating, by the way. These are all worthy women and any one might get picked. It’s also the category most difficult to predict.

I think Jennifer Lawrence will win and I think that’s really unfortunate. Not because she doesn’t deserve it; she was quite good in American Hustle. I just worry that J-Law will burn through the goodwill of the world by winning everything all the time so early in her career. I love her, and think she’s not only incredibly likable but she’s immensely talented. I won’t be disappointed if she wins. But I hope it goes to Nyong’o for the sake of both actresses.

Best Supporting Actor:

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

I’m torn on this and think that either Michael Fassbender or Jared Leto should win. But anyone could walk away in this category trophy in hand and I’d be satisfied. These are great performances all around.

I think Jared Leto will win.

Best Actress:

Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

This is another brain buster. But I don’t think it will be Meryl Streep and that alone says a lot about the year. I would love to see Bullock win because I love Gravity that much and a lot of people over-reacted against Bullock and her character when the film was released. But I’d also be happy to see Dench or Amy Adams. Mostly because I love Amy Adams. She was better than the film she was in (I don’t get the love-fest for American Hustle), and that’s the kind of thing that takes home awards.

I think Cate Blanchett will win and that’s not interesting at all.

Best Actor:
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

This might be the award that Fat Christian Bale’s Hair wins.

But I think Chiwetel Ejiofor should win. I feel very strongly about this. He’s the man that should win. His performance in 12 Years a Slave was equal to Nyong’o and they both deserve the acclaim, the award, and a place on the list of winners. Sometimes there’s just a performance you feel strongly surpasses everything else (prior to this one, it was Rooney Mara in Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. My God). I have found Ejiofor to be moving and talented for years, but his work as Solomon Northop is the kind of work that leaves its mark on history. He should win.

Leo’s time is coming soon, and his work this year, as it has been many years, is worthy. But I don’t think this year is his year.

I think Matthew McConaughey will win. By all accounts he’s a worthy recipient. But more so I think Academy voters cannot help but give an Oscar to McConaughey. They love to see a guy like him make good, go straight, and become prestigious. It wasn’t all that long ago he was cruising around in boats starring in nonsense with his shirt off looking tanned and buff and ridiculous. He’s come a long way and his 2013 truly was remarkable.

Still, it’ll be a real shame if Mr. Ejiofor doesn’t win.

Best Original Screenplay:

American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)

I think Spike Jonze should win for Her. Original. It’s in the title of the damn category.

A moment on the tragedy that is Dylan Farrow and Woody Allen. I hope Allen loses, and I hope that his name doesn’t make it in to the ceremony in any way beyond the necessary reading of the nominees. The disastrous Woody Allen tribute at the Golden Globes deserves to be forgotten. The Oscars have hopefully noted this and can obscure the fact, at least for one night, that they love love love Woody Allen.

I think Spike Jonze will win.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)

I think Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke should win for Before Midnight. This was my favorite movie of the year. I love the characters these three have slowly built over the past 20 years. I love the writing, and the development of young romance into the hard, unromantic reality of being in love that they capture in Before Midnight. It’s truly a remarkable creation, so simple, yet crafted and acted to precision. It absolutely deserves to win and has zero chance of doing so.

I think John Ridley will win. And he, too, deserves it. 12 Years a Slave is good enough to win every category, in my opinion, and there would be no complaints from me if it did.

Best Director:

American Hustle (David O. Russell)
Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)
Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

I’ve long been of the opinion that Academy voters think long and hard on what they really consider to be THE best movie of the year, and then give that movie an Oscar for Best Director. It’s not hard to see over the past 15 years that often the best movie gets this award, while something far inferior wins Best Picture for whatever bullshit reason (see: Brokeback Mountain/Crash, or Traffic/Gladiator for two really really really obvious examples).

This year, though, I think it will be reversed.

I think Steve McQueen should win. He made the best film of the year, and he deserves the award for all the small, subtle, glancing moments 12 Years a Slave is built around. There are hard and tragic and bold moments in this film; but the big, powerful moments (the single take scene in which Patsey tells of her trip to the neighbor’s plantation and is whipped equals any directorial accomplishment of the year) can sometimes make us forget the subtle accomplishments in direction. Lingering on the hands of Solomon, for example, or a breeze in the grass that places an audience in the world we wish was more foreign than it really is. That McQueen would be the first black filmmaker to win the category would be another valuable milestone for the Academy to overcome. It is deserved, and would have lasting meaning.

I think that Alfonso Cuaron will win best director for Gravity, even though I think 12 Years a Slave is the better film. The technical achievement and skill required in making Gravity is simply too stunning to pass up for voters. Like Ang Lee last year, Cuaron’s achievement is a spectacle of such high quality that almost requires the award. And again, I can’t say that I’ll blame them.

Best Picture:

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

The contenders are the big names: 12 Years, American Hustle, Wolf of Wall Street, and Gravity.

American Hustle wasn’t that good. Gravity is a real possibility, if the voters decide to give the year to classic Hollywood greatness over new cinema greatness. But they did that last year when they awarded Argo. The Wolf Of Wall Street, with all that Scorcese puts the audience through, is asking too much of too many voters. Those arguments aside, none of those films is actually THE best picture.

I think 12 Years a Slave should win Best Picture.

I think 12 Years a Slave will win Best Picture. At the end of the day, at the end of the year, and the end of the decade, this is the film that will be remembered. This is the film that will change lives, change hearts, leave audiences in truly altered states. It’s the Best Picture, and it deserves the award.